Water Outlook in New Mexico

May 6, 2026

The US Drought Monitor in late April showed that all of New Mexico was experiencing some level of drought with the vast majority of land experiencing a D2 or “Severe Drought.” When compared to the week prior, the Drought Monitor shows that more land is classifying in the D3 or “Extreme Drought.” While conditions are better when compared to the same time last year, continuous years of dry conditions are setting up New Mexico, and the West at large, for a historically dry and water-scarce year.

2026 has been the earliest now melt on record according to the US Bureau of Reclamation. The Bureau explains that the peak melt of the record low snow pack has already happened and will result in very dry conditions through the planting season and into May. However the National Weather Service is seeing indications that through the monsoon season the Southwest is expected to receive above average precipitation.

Presently, water capacity in New Mexico watersheds is at around 15% and will result in little water available to supplement rainfall.
While water managers feel confident that their teams are ready to respond to these historic conditions, the situation could intensify if the anticipated rainfall does not happen as predicted.

The Elephant Butte Reservoir could fall below 2% capacity following last year’s drop to just 3%. The Rio Grande River Water Commission met on April 17th to outline management plans for the upcoming season. Together they determined the allocation of water each state will receive to mitigate impacts of the historically low water levels.

To learn more and stay abreast of these critical issues here are several resources and upcoming learning opportunities:

The Rocky Mountain Farmers Union invites you to join a virtual session on water use and the future of agriculture in New Mexico. This year in particular, a hot dry winter will present real challenges to agricultural operations. Understanding the realities of larger trends in water use and availability will help farmers adapt and identify ways they can shape discussions about the possible solutions to ensure we have water for food production livelihoods, and ecological function.

Water in the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo Basin: Current Conditions & Future Outlook
Date: Tuesday, May 12
Time: 6:00–7:30 PM (MT)
Virtual (Zoom) – You will need to register for this event!

This session will feature Enrique Prunes of the World Wildlife Fund, who will present research coauthored with Brian Richter with Sustainable Waters on water sustainability in the greater Rio Grande/Rio Bravo basin.

The session will include a brief presentation followed by Q&A and a listening session to hear directly from farmers and ranchers.

50-Year Water Action Plan – New Mexico Environment Department
The Interstate Stream Commission has broad powers to investigate, protect, conserve, and develop New Mexico’s waters including both interstate and intrastate stream systems. Find out more here and ways to participate: New Mexico Office of the State Engineer/Interstate Stream Commission.

New Mexico’s Water Quality Control Commission (WQCC) meets monthly and is addressing critical state issues such as clean water, produced water, mining issues and more. Find more information: Water Quality Control Commission.

New Mexico’s Legislature’s Water and Natural Resources Interim Committee will resume their meetings starting in late May. This is an important committee and their agendas are full of the most important water issues for the state. Keep an eye out for their schedule that will be posted late May. Here’s the link to the Committee and their 2025 report.

The Water Resources Research Institute at NM State University funds research conducted by faculty
and students from universities across the state to address water problems critical to New Mexico and the Southwest. The institute also participates in joint efforts to solve water-related problems along the U.S./Mexico border. New Mexico Water Resources Research Institute